The deficit has risen to £30 billion from £23.7 billion in the final quarter of 2018. This is equivalent to 5.6% of GBP. This might have been down to Brexit stockpiling.
Inflation in the US was 1.8% YoY in May, coming in below the consensus forecasts. Consumer price inflation slowed from the 2% pace recorded in April, which coincided with the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target. In addition, in core CPI inflation (a gauge that excludes volatile prices, such as fuel, etc.) also slowed to 2% YoY. Benign inflation combined with slowing growth and escalating trade tensions could increase pressure on the Federal Reserve to bow to the market and cut interest rates this year. The market now takes it for granted that the Jerome Powell-led FOMC will slash the Fed funds futures by 25 bp by the end of July and initiate an easing cycle.